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With Trump having made multiple deals with trade partners to lower their respective tariff rates, we now have a better understanding about what he actually wants from them. So is the President "winning" these trade wars? Or is his trade policy confused?

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Sources:

Details on Trump’s tariffs/threats/deals

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-trade-war-timeline-20-date-guide 

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/05/23/trump-threatens-50-eu-tariff-from-june-1_6741580_19.html 

https://www.apricitas.io/p/farce-of-the-deal 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgeqrd0e9j7o 

https://observingjapan.substack.com/p/tragic-to-the-last 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgeqrd0e9j7o 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-continues-enforcement-of-reciprocal-tariffs-and-announces-new-tariff-rates/ 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/22/trump-philippines-trade-tariffs-military.html 

US Economic data

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/ 

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/28/tariff-revenue-investors-automakers 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/11/treasury-posts-unexpected-surplus-in-june-as-tariff-receipts-surge.html 

Interpretation of concessions falling apart

https://x.com/JorgeLiboreiro/status/1949757333006872712 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114899417740854572 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114902743574618008 

China vs US trade surplus/deficit data

https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1950220874444833253 

https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1950201219118436408 

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that-japan-deal

0:00 Intro

1:28 Trump's Deals So Far

4:50 Is Trump Really Winning?