Tại sao Hưu trí lại trở thành một Kế hoạch Ponzi

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Recommended video:

https://youtu.be/WVEgKFQeG4E

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Pensions were built like a pyramid—and we’re running out of people to stack on the bottom.

In this video, we break down the math behind Social Security, rising retirement ages, and the collapsing pension systems in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Why isn’t the system working anymore? What happens when retirees outnumber workers? And is there any hope for our generation to retire?

[Sources]

The mathematics of Ponzi schemes

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46490932_The_mathematics_of_Ponzi_schemes

US Social Security Administration

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n1/v75n1p1.html

US Census Bureau – Population Projections

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html

OECD – Pension spending indicator

https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/pension-spending.html

OECD (paper) – “Is it worth raising the normal retirement age?”

https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/10/is-it-worth-raising-the-normal-retirement-age_31538ac4/5f2a3b40-en.pdf

Our World in Data – Age dependency ratio

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-old?time=2023

World Bank (fertility rate chart reference)

— (no URL provided)

PEW Research Center – Workers per retiree projection

— (screen capture referenced, no direct URL given)

EL País – Spain dependency projections

— (no URL provided)

PopulationPyramid.net (multiple charts & projections)

https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2024/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/population-projections/africa+asia+europe+latin-america-and-the-caribbean+northern-america+oceania/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2059/

“Living Longer in an Ageing Europe: A Challenge for Individuals and Societies”

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1007/s12290-008-0047-5

“Pensions and Fertility – Back to the Roots” - European Central Bank

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1734.pdf

Wolf Street – Social Security update (trust fund income/outgo)

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/04/social-security-update-fiscal-2024-trust-fund-income-outgo-and-deficit/

Mercer CFA Global Pension Index

https://www.mercer.com/en-us/insights/investments/market-outlook-and-trends/mercer-cfa-global-pension-index/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Center for Retirement Research at Boston College – “What Risks Do Near Retirees and Retirees Face from Inflation, and How Do They React?”

— (no URL provided)

BMC Public Health – “Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs”

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-020-8331-7.pdf

Ghent University Working Paper – PAYG pension & fertility (wps-feb.ugent.be)

https://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_14_888.pdf#:~:text=related%20PAYG%20pension%20system,The%20higher%20%28lower%29%20marginal

McKinsey – “The economic potential of generative AI — The next productivity frontier”

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/the%20economic%20potential%20of%20generative%20ai%20the%20next%20productivity%20frontier/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier.pdf

International Federation of Robotics (IFR) – Global robot density

https://ifr.org/news/global-robot-density-in-factories-doubled-in-seven-years/1

Japan Research Institute (JRI) report

https://www.jri.co.jp/MediaLibrary/file/report/other/pdf/15311.pdf

Noema Magazine – “Here’s How to Share AI’s Future Wealth”

https://www.noemamag.com/heres-how-to-share-ais-future-wealth/#:~:text=national%20AI%20ecosystem%2C%20which%20reaps,citizens%20and%20public%20welfare%20projects

Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford) – Windfall Clause report

https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf

YouTube clips referenced (pop culture & jokes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZl7Xz_Xccw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJtsTUPDRJs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lC5lsemxaJo

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